“Machine Learning and Tropical Cyclone Risk Modeling” – Data Science Sydney

Almost 3 months after initial release of our 2018 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Forecast we were invited to give a talk introducing our modeling approach to the Data Science Sydney (DSS) group. Presenting at the DSS is always a good reality check given the machine learning expertise from the audience, and we are glad to report…

Our 2018 hurricane forecast explained

The numbers At the beginning of June we released reask’s inaugural tropical cyclone genesis forecast for the northern hemisphere. Of course we have spent a lot of time back-testing our model, but nothing beats real world live testing and this is our first attempt at it. The complete forecast for all northern hemisphere basins is…

Zoom in on our North Atlantic Hurricane Genesis Module

The genesis module from our global tropical cyclone model was released earlier this month, and provides a good opportunity to showcase some of the building blocks behind our modelling philosophy. Although the model is global, the discussion here will focus on North Atlantic Hurricanes only and on a single one of the climate indicators that…

Cutting-Edge Catastrophe Tools for Cutting-Edge Insurers

As many in the insurance industry understand, catastrophe modelling was once seen as the original Insurtech. Born in the shadow of the large catastrophes of the late eighties and early nineties, catastrophe modelling looked to apply scientific knowledge and cutting-edge technology to generate a quantitative assessment of hazard, and forever changed our views of peril-based…