Our expectations for the upcoming 2018 northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season.
To see how our forecast compares to our peers, visit the Colorado State University and Barcelona Supercomputing Centre’s seasonal hurricane prediction site. Please contact us for full access to the data.
The lower and upper hinges of the boxplots correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles) of each forecast while the horizontal lines show the median.
Storm categories are defined using the following peak 1 min sustained wind thresholds:
- Cat0 storms (named storms) have peak winds reaching at least 63 km/h
- Cat1 storms (Hurricanes) have peak winds reaching at least 119 km/h
- Cat3 storms (major Hurricanes) have peak winds reaching at least 178 km/h
This forecast uses Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/