Pre-landfall decision-making

You need a number, not a region.

Every season, emergency managers make multi-million-dollar site-level calls with a forecast cone designed for a different problem. There's no number to act on. Just a region and a decision that has to be made.

Trusted by the world's top risk professionals

THE CHALLENGE

Theconewasbuiltforadifferentproblem

It's October 7th, 2024. Hurricane Milton's forecast cone stretches across Florida's west coast. You have a critical asset on the edge of it. Shut down 48 hours out: tens of millions in lost revenue. Wait another 24 hours, that cost climbs higher. And if the storm hits and you waited, you're explaining a nine-figure damage bill to your board.

THE IMPOSSIBLE CHOICE

Every available tool asks you to choose

The cone was designed for county-level evacuation planning. It tells you where the storm might go. It doesn't tell you what that means at your facility, at your specific coordinates, with your specific cost structure.

The NHC forecast cone

The gold standard for public hurricane forecasting and the right tool for evacuation planning. At your facility, a regional forecast is not a number you can act on.

Your local analytics provider

Single deterministic trajectories. One answer, no odds. When the track shifts overnight, you're starting over, because nobody told you that shift was already in the range of possibilities.

Running a full-physics ensemble model

Accurate, but too slow for operational use. Too few simulations means the range of possibilities is underrepresented when it matters most.

Your in-house weather team

Valuable for monitoring. But watching the storm isn't the same as knowing the odds at your specific location.

Solutions

Use cases

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THE SOLUTION

1,000 realistic scenarios. Your site. Updated every six hours.

LiveCyc generates 1,000 simulated storm scenarios grounded in the current storm, giving you a probability at your specific location you can build a decision table around.

See how LiveCyc works

SITE-LEVEL PRECISION

Your coordinates. Your terrain. Your risk.

Every site is different. Terrain, surface roughness, wind direction: they all change what a storm means at your specific location. LiveCyc accounts for all of it, translating the forecast into a wind speed distribution at your exact coordinates.

1km resolution wind fields over real-world terrain

Corrected for topography and surface roughness

Site-level exceedance probability, not a regional average.

Metryc wind field map showing asymmetric wind speed distribution across a Caribbean island during a Category 4 hurricane landfall

LiveCyc Scenarios

Your coordinates. Your terrain. Your risk.

1km resolution wind fields over real-world terrain

Corrected for topography and surface roughness

Site-level exceedance probability, not a regional average.

SITE-LEVEL PRECISION

Your coordinates. Your terrain. Your risk.

1km resolution wind fields over real-world terrain

Corrected for topography and surface roughness

Site-level exceedance probability, not a regional average.

Stacked wind field layers representing 100 physically-grounded Metryc simulations of a single tropical cyclone event, illustrating explicit uncertainty modelling

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING

The full range of what could happen, with odds on each.

Three days out, there may be 20 or more landfall scenarios to consider. LiveCyc assigns a probability to each. As you get closer to landfall the distribution narrows, the number sharpens, and the decision your team needs to take becomes mechanical.

Up to 30 scenarios three days out, narrowing as landfall approaches

Each scenario includes a wind footprint and probability of occurrence

Updated every six hours throughout the event

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING

The full range of what could happen, with odds on each.

Up to 30 scenarios three days out, narrowing as landfall approaches

Each scenario includes a wind footprint and probability of occurrence

Updated every six hours throughout the event

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING

The full range of what could happen, with odds on each.

Up to 30 scenarios three days out, narrowing as landfall approaches

Each scenario includes a wind footprint and probability of occurrence

Updated every six hours throughout the event

What this means for you

From forecast to decision.

A number at your location

Odds on every scenario

Thresholds set in advance

A decision you can defend

PROOF OF CONCEPT

A framework used by organisations that can't afford to get it wrong

Built for the moment the number crosses your threshold.

VALIDATED FRAMEWORK

The threshold framework for high-value assets

The NRL's published Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness framework uses the same probability-first logic LiveCyc is built on. Pre-agreed thresholds, back-tested against historical events, agreed with your team before the season starts.