Development of a climate-driven stochastic event catalogue for Wildfire in Europe

At Reask, we specialise in the development of advanced climate-driven stochastic models to assess and manage the economic impacts of wildfire.

Our European Wildfire Model integrates a wide range of meteorological, geographical, and anthropogenic factors as well as vegetation layers to provide a comprehensive understanding of wildfire spatio-temporal patterns, fire behaviour and potential impacts.

The stochastic catalogue consists of 50K synthetic years and about 25M unique footprints at 100m resolution. This allows us to estimate hazard metrics like event frequency, event size, and tail risk over the whole continent as well as perform impact analyses, offering crucial insights for the (re)insurance industry.  

Key takeaways:  

1. Climate-Driven Fire Activity Modelling: The model relates main modes of climate variability to yearly burnt areas at continental and subcontinental scale.   

2. Ignition Modelling: Leveraging Machine Learning algorithms, we correlate human-related, climate and terrain risk factors with natural and anthropogenic ignition risk. 

3. Propagation Modelling: A raster model following Scott and Burgan fuel system is integrated to create realistic, unique wildfire perimeters.   

4. Risk Assessment and Exposure Mapping: Our model provides detailed hazard metrics that can be leveraged to support a wide range of exposure analytics, helping (re)insurers evaluate portfolio risk and quantify potential losses.  

This approach supports the understanding of the economic impacts of wildfire, offering valuable data for managing exposure and mitigating losses in a changing climate.